Eurozone Unemployment at Record High: The Consequence of Austerity Programs

Eurozone Unemployment Rate, Dec 2007 to March 2013

As reported in the recent release from Eurostat, Eurozone unemployment rose again in March to a record 12.1%.  This is the highest rate ever for the Eurozone, and indeed the highest rate since at least 1983 (the earliest date for unemployment data reported by Eurostat) for the underlying countries.

Austerity programs do increase unemployment, despite what senior European officials have said.  On this, one might recall the famous assertion in June 2010 of Jean-Claude Trichet, then head of the European Central Bank, that austerity programs would be expansionary and lead to job creation.  As was discussed in an earlier post on this blog, in a June 2010 interview with La Repubblica (the largest circulation newspaper in Italy), Trichet said:

Trichet:  … As regards the economy, the idea that austerity measures could trigger stagnation is incorrect.

La Republicca:  Incorrect?

Trichet:  Yes …

And in an interview a month later in the newspaper Libération of France:

Libération:  Do the austerity plans announced amid monumental disarray by the Member States pose the risk of killing off the first green shoots of growth?

Trichet:  It is an error to think that fiscal austerity is a threat to growth and job creation. …

At the urging of Trichet, other European officials, and especially German government officials, most of Europe then began to reverse the stimulus programs of late 2008 and 2009  –  programs that had stopped and then reversed the free fall resulting from the 2008 economic and financial collapse.

Exactly one year after Trichet made his famous assertion, unemployment rates in the Eurozone began a steady upward march, which have continued ever since.

Europe GDP Falls Again: Austerity Programs Lead to Contraction

Europe GDP Growth, 2007Q4 to 2012Q4

The European Statistical Agency Eurostat released today its “flash” estimate of GDP growth in the European economies in the fourth quarter of 2012.  The results are terrible.  The initial estimate is that GDP fell at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 2.4% in the fourth quarter (or a fall of 0.6% quarter on quarter) in the 17 economies that make up the Eurozone, and that GDP fell at an annualized rate of 2.0% (0.5% quarter on quarter) in the 27 economies in the European Union as a whole.  The 2.4% rate of fall of GDP in the Eurozone, and fall of 2.0% in the EU as a whole, can be contrasted with the recently released estimate that GDP in the US was essentially flat (a 0.1% rate of decline in the initial estimate) in the fourth quarter of 2012.

The flat GDP in the US at the end of 2012 was not a good performance, and has been justly criticized as well below what is needed.  But the fall at a rate of 2.4% in the Eurozone was far worse.  As shown in the graph above, Eurozone GDP has now fallen steadily for five quarters in a row.  Europe is well into a double-dip recession, having never fully recovered from the 2008 downturn, and its GDP is now 3% below what it was in the first quarter of 2008, almost five years ago.

Not only is output falling in Europe as a whole, but it is also falling in each of the major countries.  Especially notable is the fall in GDP at an annualized rate of 2.4% in Germany.  GDP in Germany had been rising at a modest rate since mid-2009, although the recovery slowed in 2011 and has now turned negative.  But in addition to Germany, there were falls in GDP at annualized rates of 1.2% in France and the UK, of 0.8% in the Netherlands, and also of 2.8% in Spain and 3.6% in Italy (not shown in the graph above).

UK output is now even further below the path it followed during the Great Depression in the 1930’s.  As discussed in an earlier posting on this blog, the UK economy is performing worse now than it did during the Great Depression.  The turnaround from what had been a modest but steady recovery occurred in mid-2010, when the newly elected Conservative-led government embarked on an austerity plan similar to what Republicans have called for the US to follow.  But the consequences have been terrible.  By 19 quarters into the downturn (one quarter shy of five years), the UK economy is producing 3% less than it had in early 2008.  At the same point during the Great Depression, the UK economy was producing 4% more than at its previous cyclical peak, and growth was steadily positive.

The fall in German GDP is significant, as it may now induce Germany to agree to steps that would allow Europe as a whole to recover and start to grow.  Germany has been a forceful advocate for austerity in both fiscal and monetary programs, even though (as discussed in an earlier posting on this blog), Germany itself had until 2011 had its government expenditures grow relatively strongly.  But its economy slowed in late 2011 and into 2012, and output has now fallen sharply in the last quarter of 2012.  Germany has strongly resisted measures which would have served to boost European growth, but there may now be a basis for the hope that this will change, now that Germany sees its interests aligned with those of others in Europe.

There are steps that Europe could take to recover from this downturn.  These include:

  1. Reverse the austerity policies, at least among the economies with ready access to the financial markets.  Ten year government borrowing rates are only 1.5% in Germany, 1.7% in the Netherlands, 1.8% in the UK, and 2.2% in France.  These are either below, or close to, the 2% inflation target of the ECB and others.  That is, these governments can borrow ten year funds at essentially zero or even negative real cost.  It is madness not to make use of such funds to pay for investments in infrastructure, education, and other purposes, at a time when resources (both labor and capital) are idle due to lack of demand.  Indeed, it is in times like these when such public investments are best made.  Not only do they boost the recovery, but they do not displace the use of such resources for other purposes.  When the economy is close to full employment, with capital also being fully utilized, using resources for infrastructure and other public investments entails a trade-off, as the resources then used for such public investment have to be drawn from their use for other purposes.  The trade-off might then still be warranted, but it is far better to make such public investments in times like today, when there is no such trade-off.
  2. The European Central Bank should follow the more supportive monetary policies that have been followed by all the other major central banks in the world, including in the US, the UK, and Japan.  The main policy interest rates at all these other central banks have been kept at 25 basis points (0.25%) or below since their economies started crashing in late 2008.  The European Central Bank, in contrast, kept its main policy interest rate at 100 basis points from May 2009 to April 2011.  This relatively high rate at a time of economic weakness led to greater economic weakness, as shown in the graph above.  It then made the mistake of starting to raise the rate, first to 125bp and then to 150bp in the spring and summer of 2011.  The renewed downturn in GDP of the Euro 17 started soon thereafter (see the graph above).  The ECB then started to lower the rate again in late 2011, but it was too little and too late. And the policy rate remains (since mid-2012) at 75bp, well above the rates followed by the other major central banks of the world.  The ECB should lower its rate to 25bp immediately.
  3. Weakness in the commercial banking system in Europe remains a major problem, particularly as financial markets in Europe are far more dependent on their commercial banking systems than is the case in the US (where capital markets are relatively larger).  When the euro was under intense pressure last summer, European leaders agreed to move to some form of a system of more centralized commercial bank regulation and supervision.  But while an important agreement was reached in December 2012, under which the European Central Bank would supervise directly the larger banks in Europe, this agreement did not go as far as had been earlier anticipated.  While it was agreed that the ECB would have direct responsibility for the supervision of the major banks, its authority to deal with failing banks and the resources it could use to do so, were kept limited.  There is also no central system of deposit insurance, but rather still a set of different systems at the national level.  A euro-wide system of bank regulation and supervision, with the power and resources to address failing banks and with a consolidated deposit insurance system, would go far to addressing the weaknesses of a common currency zone.  In a common currency zone, the ability of national authorities to deal with failing banks is constrained.

Europe is now in a double-dip recession.  The austerity programs have failed.  Yet Republicans in the US continue to push for the US to follow similar policies.

Fiscally Prudent Germany: Government Expenditures Have Grown, Despite the Rhetoric

Europe GDP Growth, 2007Q4 to 2012Q3 - 1

Germany & US - Govt Cons & Investment, 2007 to 2011

Germany & US - Govt Expenditures, Revenues, Deficit - 2007Q4 to 2012Q3

As was noted in the preceding post on this blog, austerity programs implemented in most of the major European economies in 2010/2011 have led to a double-dip recession in Europe, as the incipient recovery of 2009/2010 was killed.  Germany would appear to be an exception to this, as the German economy (like that of the US) continued to grow in 2011 and 2012.  The top graph above (repeated here from the preceding blog post) shows the growth since the end of 2007 for Germany, the US, and for the Eurozone area as a whole, as well as for France, the Netherlands, and the UK.

Germany, led by Angela Merkel of the conservative Christian Democrats since 2005, has been especially adamant in insisting on the austerity programs.  She pushed for such programs in much of the continent, and in particular as a condition of financial loan support from Germany in the cases of Spain, Italy, Greece, and others.  She was also the principal proponent of the “fiscal compact” under which EU member governments would be required to maintain balanced budgets.

Given all this, one would have expected that Germany itself would have followed a strict austerity program.  However, it in fact allowed government expenditures to rise relatively sharply (see the second graph above), and by a good deal more than in the US.  What is different in Germany is that it also kept up its government revenues, rather than seek to stimulate the economy through tax cuts.  This is seen in the third graph.  The result is that while German fiscal deficits grew, to almost 5% of GDP in 2010, they remained well below the deficits seen in the US and elsewhere.  The deficit was then reduced in 2011 as revenues rose and expenditure growth was moderated, but with a resulting slow-down in German growth in 2011 and 2012 (see the top graph).

In contrast to Germany, the US had government consumption and investment expenditures level off in 2010 and then fall in 2011 (second graph).  Total government expenditures (including transfer payments, such as for Social Security and Medicare) were reduced after peaking in the second quarter of 2009 (third graph).  But the US also cut back sharply on taxes (as discussed in this blog post).  The result was an increase in the overall government deficit to over 12% of GDP (for all levels of government).  This has now come down to about 8 1/2% of GDP, but remains high.

Germany is often cited as an example by conservatives in the US and elsewhere of prudent fiscal policy in response to the crisis.  The German fiscal deficit is indeed relatively modest.  But the German deficit is modest not because government expenditures are low, but because Germany has kept government revenues high.  Indeed, German government expenditures are a good deal higher than they are in the US as a share of GDP (21% higher in 2011).  But German government revenues are also far higher than they are in the US (64% higher in 2011, as a share of GDP).  The prudence comes not from low government expenditures, but from ensuring government revenues are kept high to pay for such expenditures.

Senator Mitch McConnell, the Republican Leader in the Senate, has said repeatedly in recent years:  “We’re not in this mess because Washington taxes too little; we’re in this mess because Washington spends too much.”  The example of conservative and fiscally prudent Germany points to the opposite:  We are in trouble not because Washington spends too much, but because it taxes too little.

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Notes on Data

The data for Germany comes from the European statistical agency Eurostat.  It is an excellent source of consistent data for all members of the European Union.  However, national accounts and fiscal data for Europe are gathered differently in the US, which sometimes makes it difficult to arrive at directly comparable data.  In particular:

  • Quarterly data on government total expenditures and revenues are not available on a seasonally adjusted basis.  Furthermore, the most recent quarterly data reported is only for the period through the fourth quarter of 2011.
  • While seasonally adjusted quarterly data (in real, inflation-adjusted, terms) are available in the national income (GDP) accounts for government consumption, the national income accounts in Europe do not show government investment separately.  Rather, government investment is combined with private investment in the European accounts.  In the US, the national income accounts record government consumption and government investment together.
  • Real government investment is available separately on an annual basis for the European economies, which is why the second graph above shows these numbers on an annual rather than quarterly basis.
  • Total government expenditure (for not just consumption and investment, but also including transfer payments such as for old-age pensions, medical care, unemployment insurance, etc.) is available on a quarterly basis, but only in nominal terms (i.e. not inflation adjusted) and not on a seasonally adjusted basis.  The German data in the third graph was therefore shown as a share of GDP, and the lack of seasonal adjustment accounts for the quarterly fluctuation seen.  When figures are quoted in the text (such as for 2011 government expenditures and revenues) the four quarter average was used.
  • The US data comes from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) of the US Department of Commerce.

Finally, note that “government” as defined here includes all levels of government:  federal, state, and local.