Category Archives: Econ Data

Private Job Growth Under Obama: Recovery, in Contrast to the Fall Under Bush

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Cumulative Private sector employment growth by months from inaugurations, Obama, Bush II, Clinton, Bush I

Cumulative Government sector employment growth by months from inaugurations, Obama, Bush II, Clinton, Bush I

[Update on February 2, 2013:  A more recent analysis of these issues, with these charts now covering the full first term of Obama, is available here.]

A.  Introduction

Mitt Romney and Republican Party leaders have repeatedly and emphatically asserted that Obama and the policies of his administration have been terrible for private sector job growth, and that voters should therefore bring back the Republicans and their policies.  Indeed, Romney has said his campaign is all about jobs.  At the same time, they’ve asserted that government and its bureaucrats have exploded during the Obama years, with this holding back private sector job growth.

But as the figures above show, private sector jobs have recovered under Obama, reversing the freefall that was underway as he was taking the oath of office, while government employment has contracted sharply.  In contrast, private jobs were stable when George W. Bush took office, but then started to fall and fall sharply, while government jobs rose.  By 38 months into his first term, there were 2.4 million fewer private sector jobs in the US economy than on the day Bush was inaugurated.  Yet Romney repeatedly lambasts Obama for his jobs record, while he argues for bringing back the policies of Bush.

They figures show the cumulative change in private and in government jobs between January of the year the Presidents were inaugurated, to the March that was 38 months (a little over three years) later.  The March date 38 months later was chosen as that is the most recent date for which data is available for Obama.  The data all come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  The graph on government jobs is similar in presentation to that used by Paul Krugman in a posting on his blog yesterday.  The government jobs issue was also reviewed in a posting on this blog site over four months ago, which noted the collapse in government jobs during the Obama years (while they grew under Bush), and discussed how this has hurt overall job growth in the economy.

B.  Private Sector Jobs

Private sector jobs were falling rapidly in the period leading up to Obama’s inauguration in January 2009, as has been discussed before in this blog (see in particular the figure at this posting).  While the pace of decline was turned around almost immediately (within three months of Obama taking office), the number of private sector jobs continued to decline in Obama’s first year.  But jobs in the private sector then began to grow, and by March 2012 (the most recent figure available) they are almost back to where they were when he took office.  While this represents a growth of over 4 million private jobs over the past two years, the hole was a deep one.  The economy was hemorrhaging 800,000 jobs per month at the end of the Bush administration.  One would have of course wanted a more rapid recovery from this deep hole, but Republican opposition in Congress has blocked the measures that would have been needed to get this done (such as further stimulus).

But while one would have wanted a more rapid recovery from the 2008 economic collapse, contrast the record of Obama with that of George W. Bush in the first term of his administration.  Private jobs were growing in the final months of the Clinton administration, and were flat in the first two months of the Bush administration.   But they then began to fall (with the fall well underway before the September 11 attacks, so one cannot blame them).  The steady decline in private sector jobs continued for two and a half years, and at the trough there were 3.4 million fewer private jobs than when Bush took office.  They then began a slow recovery, but by 38 months into his term there were still 2.4 million fewer private jobs than when Bush took the oath of office.   Yet Romney and his economic advisors (most of whom held high positions in the Bush administration) advocate bringing back the policies of Bush.

The graph also shows private job growth for similar periods in the Clinton administration and in the administration of the elder George Bush.  Under the Democratic administration of Clinton, there was steady and strong private sector job growth throughout the period being followed here (and indeed throughout his two terms).  Under the Republican administration of the elder George Bush, there was some, but weak, private job growth in his first year and a half in office, but then private jobs fell, so that by 38 months into his term they were close to where they had been when he started.  Put another way, after one year in office up to the point 38 months into their respective terms, private jobs rose by over 4 million under Obama, but fell by 1.4 million under the elder Bush.

C.  Government Jobs

The story commonly told about growth in government jobs under the different Democratic and Republican administrations is also a false one.  Total government jobs have fallen during the Obama term, but grew sharply during the terms of both Bush administrations.  They also grew during the Clinton period, although by less than in either of the two Bush terms.  (Note that the sharp spike, and then after a few months a reversion to the previous trend, at a little over a year into both the Obama and first Bush administrations, is due to temporary hiring for the decennial census.)  Keep in mind that government employment in the US is mostly state and local government employment, with federal employment only a small share (13% currently).  But under Obama, non-defense federal employment has fallen as well (discussed in this blog posting).

Positive government job growth during the Obama period, similar to that seen during the two Bush administrations, would have helped spur the recovery.  But federal support which would have saved the jobs of teachers, police, and others has been blocked by Republican opposition, while cuts at the state and local level have been driven not only by deficit concerns but also by ideology.  Indeed, prominent Republican governors such as Scott Walker in Wisconsin, Chris Christie in New Jersey, John Kasich of Ohio, Rick Perry of Texas, Rick Scott of Florida, and others, have celebrated their slashing of state and local government employment, often while cutting taxes at the same time.  The job cuts have been unprecedented.

D.  Conclusion

The Republican stories on jobs are myths, and not consistent with the facts.  Private sector jobs have recovered under Obama, and have grown by over 4 million jobs once the downturn Obama inherited was stopped.  One would have hoped for a faster recovery, but further efforts to spur the recovery have been blocked by Republican opposition in Congress.  And the story should be compared to that in the first term of George W. Bush, where there were 2.4 million fewer private sector jobs than when he took office, at the comparable point in his term.

The story told about government job growth under the different administrations is also false.  Government jobs have been slashed sharply (mostly at the state and local level) during the Obama period, which has hurt the economic recovery.  In contrast, government jobs grew significantly under both Bush administrations, and grew but by somewhat less during the comparable Clinton period.  Positive government job growth during the Obama period, had it happened, would have helped spur the economic recovery.

Multifactor Productivity Growth: A Record High in 2010

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US Productivity Growth, Non-farm Business Sector, 1988- 2010

The Republican presidential candidates continue to assert loudly that over-bearing new regulatory burdens under Obama have crippled the American economy and account for the slow recovery from the 2008 collapse.  Mitt Romney, in a policy address at the University of Chicago on March 19 for example (see transcript here), asserted that regulatory burdens (in addition to higher taxes, even though taxes have in fact been cut under Obama), were leading to businesses shutting down and jobs disappearing as “Entrepreneurs decide it’s too risky and too costly to invest and to hire.”

New burdensome regulations, if they were a problem, would reduce productivity.  Yet as this blog has noted previously (see here), productivity growth has in fact been quite good during the Obama period.  The productivity concept normally used for such discussion is simple labor productivity, which measures output (GDP) per unit of labor input (either employment or hours of labor).  This productivity concept is useful in part because it can be estimated as soon as one has an estimate of GDP, i.e. each calendar quarter.  But it is not a measure of pure productivity, as output per unit of labor can rise due to several things, including from increased capital investment (more machinery and equipment, which improves productivity) or from changes in the composition of labor (towards more highly educated, and hence more productive, workers).

Multifactor Productivity (also sometimes called Total Factor Productivity) is a measure of productivity that takes into account increased capital availability and other such factors.   The Bureau of Labor Statistics of the US Department of Labor provides an estimate of it, but because it is more difficult to estimate, it only comes out with a major lag.  On March 21, the BLS issued its estimate for 2010.  Only annual estimates are made.  And while the series only goes back to 1987 (and hence has growth rates only from 1988), it is interesting that while Romney and the other Republicans are complaining of a large increased burden on business from regulations under Obama, the BLS found that multifactor productivity grew faster in 2010 than in any year since they started estimating the series in 1988.

The graph above shows the BLS estimates of multifactor productivity (MFP) growth for 1988 to 2010, for the private non-farm business sector.  MFP grew by 3.5% in 2010, reversing the downward trend seen since 2003 and absolute declines in 2008 and 2009.  As noted, the 3.5% increase in MFP in 2010 is the highest in the history of the series.  If Obama’s regulations were stifling businesses, one would not see such an upward bounce in productivity.  The Republican charge is simply not consistent with the facts.

One should also not jump to the opposite conclusion that the upward bounce in productivity in 2010 can be credited totally to regulatory or other reforms instituted by the Obama administration.  It would be consistent with such reforms improving productivity (i.e. the opposite of what Romney and the Republicans have asserted), but it could be due to other factors also.

The truth is that much of the year to year change in productivity can be accounted for by the business cycle.  When economic output is falling, as it was in 2008 and the first half of 2009, productivity will typically fall (or not grow as much as in normal growth years), as businesses lay off labor only with a lag after they find they cannot sell all of their output.  And in an economic recovery, productivity will rise, as businesses also only start to hire new workers with a lag.  The same happens with business investment (and hence the stock of machinery and equipment and other capital available for use), so that capital is underused as economic output falls in a recession and then is more intensively used at the start of a recovery.  Looking forward, it is likely that MFP growth will not be so high in 2011, and indeed might even be relatively low, as businesses started hiring new workers more aggressively in 2011 as the economic recovery continued (albeit slowly, due to still low demand for what they could produce).  But we will not know for another year, when the BLS issues their estimate for MFP growth in 2011.

The productivity data cannot by itself demonstrate conclusively whether or not the record high growth in productivity in 2010 was primarily due to measures implemented by the Obama administration.  But what we do know is that the data is clearly not consistent with the Republican charge that Obama has imposed huge new regulatory burdens which have stifled productivity.

Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance: A Good Report, But Not Yet Where It Needs to Be

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance continue to improve, although claims are still somewhat above where they would normally be when the economy is at full employment.  While there is a good deal of noise in the week to week figures, the trend has clearly been an improving one.  But there are concerns that weak US growth, and problems stemming from Europe and elsewhere, could undermine the improvement seen so far.

The data come from this morning’s regular weekly release by the US Department of Labor, and it is helpful to see the figures in the longer term context.  The graph above updates one from my posting of November 20, 2011.  Initial claims for unemployment insurance came to 348,000 in the week ending February 11, far better than the roughly 650,000 per week who were being laid off and filing claims for unemployment insurance when Obama took office.

The initial unemployment claims are still somewhat above, although now fairly close to, the level of around 310,000 to 320,000 per week that one would see when the economy is at close to full employment.  As was discussed in a January 19 posting on this blog on the dynamics of the labor market, there is constant churning in the jobs market, with workers being laid off even when the economy is at full employment.  And as was shown in the second graph in that January 19 posting, layoffs are now close to where they were before the 2008 economic collapse.

But new hires remain (at around 4 million per month) well below where they would be when the economy is operating at full employment (around 5 million per month).  Hence unemployment remains high (8.3%).  Firms have a surfeit of cash in their accounts from very high profits (see posting here), but there is little demand for extra production.  Unfortunately, it is now politically impossible (due to concerted Republican opposition in Congress) for the government to follow the expansionary policy one would need to provide that demand.

So the economy continues to grow, but slowly.  Hence the employment situation has continued to improve, but only slowly.  And there are concerns that the on-going recovery in 2012 remains fragile.  As was noted in a January 27 post, US growth in the fourth quarter of 2011 was largely due to a large increase in inventories.  This is unlikely to continue, and even if inventory growth increases again as much as it did in the fourth quarter (with all else growing as it did in the fourth quarter, although these will of course change), GDP growth would come to only 0.8% at an annual rate.

There are also major concerns arising from Europe.  Europe has been following deliberate austerity policies, and consequently is likely now in recession.  It was announced yesterday that GDP fell in the EU as a whole at a 1.2% annualized rate in the fourth quarter (0.3% at a quarterly rate).  The normal criterion for a recession is for two quarters of such negative growth.  The Greek crisis is also not resolved, and could get much worse.  And there are other global concerns as well, such as the risk that tensions with Iran could escalate and lead to an attempt to close of the Straits of Hormuz, and cause oil prices to skyrocket.

So while the labor market has improved, there are concerns on whether this can be sustained.